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Thursday, March 17, 2011

Isles fans begin to think 2011-12, but who will they see?

It's time for Isles fans to look to 2011-12 and beyond. Much to the chagrin of Islanders Country, the crosstown rival New York Rangers effectively put the nail in the coffin to any hope of a miraculous playoff appearance. Sure the team is still mathematically alive in the race; however, it's not looking good when the team sits 14th in a 15-team Eastern Conference with only 11 games remaining.

Overall, things are looking up for the franchise (aside from the lack of home after 2015). The young core is developing well in Nassau and many of the organization's prospects are making strides as well. Garth Snow's goal, since learning that Long Island was not viewed as a sexy option for top-notch free agents, was to replenish the team's roster from the ground up. He put an extreme emphasis on scouting, both in the professional ranks and the amateur level.

The results? Pretty remarkable thus far: Matt Moulson (now a two-time 30-goal scorer), P.A. Parenteau (47 points this season), and Michael Grabner (leads NHL rookies in goals with 28). The same can be said of recent Islanders draft picks: the quick progression of Travis Hamonic, the killer season Anders Lee is having at Notre Dame, and Calvin de Haan's continued strong play in Oshawa, to name just a few.

The NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) mandates that no team can exceed 50 players signed to the organization. This number includes players signed to one-way or two-way deals, but does not include 18 or 19 year-olds with entry level contracts that were sent back to juniors and have played in less than 11 NHL games in one season. It is important to note that almost all NHL teams leave a few slots open once the season begins to provide breathing room in the event of injuries (something the Islanders can easily relate to).

Here is how the Islanders currently stand on their way towards that cap of 50 players:
  • Players on current NHL roster with contracts for 2011-12 (IR included)
  1. John Tavares
  2. Matt Moulson
  3. Trent Hunter
  4. P.A. Parenteau
  5. Matt Martin
  6. Frans Nielsen
  7. Mark Streit
  8. Mark Eaton
  9. Milan Jurcina
  10. Travis Hamonic
  11. Mike Mottau
  12. Andrew MacDonald
  13. Rick DiPietro
  14. Kevin Poulin
  • Players on current AHL roster with contracts for 2011-12
  1. Justin DiBenedetto
  2. David Ullstrom
  3. Rhett Rakhshani
  4. Tony Romano
  5. Mark Katic
  6. Anton Klementyev
  7. Mikko Koskinen
  8. Aaron Ness (left college early to sign entry level deal, on ATO with Bridgeport now)
So that's 22 so far. Now here is where Snow's job will get a little more difficult:
  • Players on current NHL roster that will be restricted free agents (RFAs)
  1. Kyle Okposo
  2. Josh Bailey
  3. Michael Grabner
  4. Blake Comeau
  5. Micheal Haley
  6. Jesse Joensuu
  7. Jack Hillen
  8. Bruno Gervais
  9. Al Montoya
  • Players on current AHL roster that will be restricted free agents (RFAs)
  1. Jeremy Colliton
  2. Robin Figren
  3. Tomas Marcinko
  4. Rob Hisey
  5. Dylan Reese
  6. Ty Wishart
  7. Dustin Kohn
Assume for a moment that all 16 are re-signed, that would bring the number to 38. Now take into account the following:
  1. Nine players in the organization are pending unrestricted free agents (UFAs): Doug Weight, Zenon Konopka, Trevor Gillies, Andy Hilbert, Jeremy Yablonski, Radek Martinek, Evgeni Nabokov, Joel Martin, and Nathan Lawson.
  2. The Islanders own the rights to six players that they need to sign by June 1st or they lose them: Casey Cizikas, David Toews, Brian Day, Tony Dehart, Shane Sims, and Anders Nilsson. Cizikas is the only one that can sign with the organization and return to juniors, therefore not counting against the 50 player limit.
  3. Everyone, including Oshawa Generals Head Coach Chris DiPiero, assumes Calvin de Haan will turn pro after this season.
  4. 2010 1st round pick Nino Niederreiter, currently tearing up the WHL, has a great chance to make the club next season.
  5. One can safely assume Snow will sign at least a couple of players via free agency.
  6. A contract may be offered to the Islanders 2011 first round draft pick.
Snow and his staff will have at least 55 names to consider before the 2011 Entry Draft or free agency period rolls around. The possibility also remains for the team to sign undrafted collegiant free agents once they play their final game or decide to leave school in order to turn pro.

Expect the following names to play their final game with the organization this season: Bruno Gervais, Trevor Gillies, Andy Hilbert, Nathan Lawson, Joel Martin, Radek Martinek, Dylan Reese, and Jeremy Yablonski. Add in a Doug Weight retirement and that number should easily be down to 46. The decisions will surely get harder after that.

So who will be in and who will be out? Only time will tell.

Thanks to capgeek for its incredible coverage of player contracts.